Monday, November 25, 2013

Nov 24

1. http://news.mingpao.com/20131125/gaa1.htm

明報這個調查有趣.在台慶之後我一直在想究竟"快發牌比香港電視"有多少個like是香港本土的.由此大家可以對facebook的社交力量有更深入的認識.我有以下的資料:

a. 我只有大概100個在香港居住的朋友,但當中有27 個like了這個page.算他25%.相當於200萬
b. 台慶跌了四五點相當與大概40萬
c. <<快發牌>>有~50萬個likes

a 和b,c差得太多,只能說我的朋友都比較liberal
b 和 c表面看來match得很好.但只當c裡面的人本來都會看台慶才可以這樣說.可是我不覺得會是如此.我沒有證據,但我相信是這樣.這代表了什麼呢?

i. 是不是like 很容易,熄電視就難很多,那佔領中環就基本上沒可能了.佔中發起人應該好好研究一下.
ii. 是不是50萬的人有一大部分不是在香港居住呢?不是,有四十五萬在香港.

http://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-pages/448027308647829

2. 我提議吾爾開希不要恩將仇報給提供曾經營救他的香港人添麻煩,剛處理了Snowden,又在搞政改,香港政府已經夠煩了.我提議他在機場找一個看是內地的高官,搶他的錢包,但不要跑太遠,香港政府就會抓他.香港自然會通報內地,那內地要不要人就不關香港政府的事,這樣不用犧牲香港也能達到他的目的(嘲笑中共或回內地探親),不是很好嗎?如果不成,搶了錢包是輕罪,在香港滯留幾天就可以走,不是皆大歡喜又風險最低嗎?

3. 感恩節來了.西人對"感恩"有特別的節日,表示他們也不太感恩.我們東方文化,從生到死每天都在感恩,對父母,前輩,社會,皇帝,天地都要感恩.皇恩浩蕩啊,天地載恩啊.在讀<<菊與刀>>,她說日文的”有難う”(這可不太容易)”すみません”(這如何得了)”かたじけない"(誠惶誠恐)”気の毒”(真過意不去)這些可以翻譯成"Thank you"的詞彙都在表示受恩之後誠惶誠恐的心態.因為誠惶誠恐,所以要"報恩於萬一".這個恩和情於日本人和中國人最為重要,成也蕭何敗也蕭何.我們引入西方價值觀是,真的要把他剔除掉嗎?



Nov 25 其實我昨晚的邏輯和結論是錯的.應該說香港有400萬活躍facebook用戶,所以like了45萬等於90萬.雖然和熄電視的人差了一倍,但是算是很準了.為甚麼這麼準呢?可能因為都是短時間內發生的事.如果是佔中,like 了一年,correlation可能就沒有這麼大了.

Nov 23

李飛說"廣大市民非常珍惜自己的權利,對如期實現普選有很高期待".雖然可以解釋為大家有很高的期望如期普選,你們不要和中央作對以致失去起碼形式上的普選.但是我還是會從正面解讀他肯定了香港人對普選的願望.

李飛是在<<決定>>發表之後才訪港,所以他代表了中央內部共同的意願.從他的言論來講,可以認為中央對普選還是挺開放的,而這個態度是不會隨便改的.

雖然說特首一定要愛國,但我沒有過聽過哪個民主派說過他自己不愛國.所以幾乎每個人都可以參選(除了提倡香港獨立或回到英殖年代者).

但再想一想,其實有一些愛國人士是不可以參選的.例如,支聯會是名副其實的愛國團體,但是因為他的宗旨是結束一黨專政,雖然愛國但不現實,故然不可.

所以愛國其實不是必要條件,我覺得"河水不犯井水"才是必要.希望民主派把重點放在香港的民主上,不要畫蛇添足,最後能夠參選,甚至被選出來.讓美國國會跌一下眼鏡也好.

我越來越覺得中國還是有希望的.<<決定>>以<<全面深化改革>>為題,可以是陽謀,但還是標示了他不用礙於左派的實力而不提改革,而且是全面的深化的.希望香港在這個勢頭上能夠爭取到最大的民主.取得中央的信任,以後進一步幫助中國的民主改革.

跟著這幾年的國際形勢和國內分裂活動對中國的挑戰一定是越來越大,所以左派可以一夜間掌權.希望香港的民主運動不要因此再生波折.

對啦,我今天起來突然有一個怪想,如果有一天中共得到諾貝爾和平獎,那該是一件非常好的事吧?哈哈!

Nov 20

這次熄電視運動使我深深感受到統計學的偉大。用八百個裝了盒子的家庭作為全港電視觀眾的樣品,看來非常合適,這一定是統計理論得出的最優化的樣品大小,而且非常robust。為什麼有這個想法呢?因為如果能使無線台慶收視率跌到非常低(例如零),那將會是一件很有歷史意義的事情,是在創造歷史,所以每個家庭都有很大的誘因去熄電視,因為他們將可以對別人宣告他們在這個歷史事件上出了八百分之一的力量。這可不得了!在一個八百萬人口的城市裡,你何時有機會在一個歷史事件上佔有八百分之一的功勞呢?連那些有權選特首的也沒有這樣的機會呢!

但是結果收視只跌了幾點到29點。如果八百不是一個優化的數目,應該很容易被這種氣氛左右。如果統計學是錯的或者樣本有偏差,就會得到壓倒性的結果(收視率大升或急跌)。但結果卻是很中性,因為別忘了,八百個家庭中早就有厭倦無線節目的人,他們響應這個運動是很自然的。

不過,一個家庭誰最大?當然是老婆和母親大人啦,爭節目看的時候她們總是贏,何況今天是看與不看之爭。任你革命小兵,在外呼風喚雨,在家裡還不是讓她們對你專政?

Nov 18

1.
http://hktext.blogspot.com/2013/11/political.html

這個說得很好啊!但這也無所謂,怕的是中共也對香港意氣闌珊,不再在乎民意,不再在乎做得不比英國好,不再在乎國際對一國兩制的看法。如果這樣,香港就不好過了。香港本來是新嫁娘,還是以下嫁的姿態進入這個中國大家庭,受到特別待遇,主要的原因也是為了家族的面子;但是這個新成員越來越不受控制,和其他地區的人還出現這麼多磨擦,其實眼紅的人很多,想看著你死的人更不少。再三思考,實在想不到為甚麼中共還要"忍受"這個新成員的脾氣,如果有任何原因的話,就是中共對改革開放和穩定的願望比香港人更強烈,不會為了香港而做出影響中國穩定的事情(例如鎮壓和暴力接管)。將來,中共也不在乎香港自我內耗成為二三線城市,最重要不要影響他的計畫,所以佔中不佔中對他也不重要,只要能封鎖消息避免在內地激發類似運動就可以了;當然,這就一定要把佔中妖魔化,定性為外國勢力和前朝分子的分裂活動。就像六四四二六社論一樣,把運動定性後,只有非常執著者敢在內地學習。

2.
雖然很多人說王維基非常低調,沒有趁勢把自己變成英雄。但是我看他,也實在不是一個普通商人。一個商人或者投資者,一般不會去改變遊戲規則,應該說不會通過民眾運動去改變遊戲規則,而是通過壟斷或者與政府合污來達到目的。如果在一個地方投資不了,很少會挑戰該地政府,因為每個商人都知道沒有永遠的敵人這個道理。雖然他再三強調他相信與西環無關,但是他沒有把特區政府放在眼內,而且四處參加討論講座,並說梁沒有連任的可能。真是不知用意在何,把他對中共釋出的友善和誠意完全沖淡;雖然不參加造神運動,卻又沒有完全低調。難怪大家都怕他,世上最可怕的就是有錢人+有良心的人+有魄力和行動的人。你看孫中山(有良心的人+有魄力和行動的人)加上海外華僑(有錢人+有良心的人)的力量就明白了。王維基絕對不是一個普通的投資者。

3.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_Partners_Group

這個也叫我模不著頭腦。他們在2007擴張亞太地區,很明顯大中華地區是他們的主要戰場,而且以中國為主,四間亞太地區的分行分別是北京上海香港和新加坡。但他們的顧問公司總監伍珮瑩居然如此高調與政府唱反調和說不會再接政府的生意,良心實在不是一個公司賴以生存的東西,尤其當不牽涉人命的時候;一個只有250人的公司,葫蘆裡究竟在賣什麼藥?還有為什麼當時政府願意找一個這麼小的公司來做顧問報告呢?

4.
前幾天李國能說有些事情是不一定要通過公民抗命來達到目的,如03年大遊行反對23條就很成功,言下之意就是不一定要佔中來達到普選。他說得也很對。但你看佔中發起人以雷聲大的姿態來發動佔中,用這麼長的時間來討論,而到行動時很可能只是雨點小,可以看到他們的目的是要通過這種標奇立異的方式來引起社會的關注和討論。很明顯,如果現在發起普選遊行,一定沒有之前的浩大。香港人很少考慮公民抗命,所以以公民抗命為題,能引起他們的興趣。不過,這樣的方法只能用一次,以後香港人又會回到對政治莫不關心的心態。

所以他們其實在給香港人上一堂社會課,這一堂可能是免費的,但是代價也可以很大,我只希望,到時在他們的回憶錄裡不要說他們當時只是在模石頭過河,在做實驗多於在實踐他們非常有信心的理論。

Nov 11

看到這舊新聞,可能以下是HKTV失敗的主要原因?

"逼政府發牌 儲唔夠Like照播片
王維基急推《警界線》博觀眾撐"

作為一個投資者,他通過民意來leverage自己的實力.他有沒有把這個risk factor計算在內?如果有,為甚麼一申請失敗就要layoff?layoff 是不是只是另一個leverage 策略?王維基一直強調相信發牌事件與西環無關,偏偏西環就要在特權法之役插一下手.西環看來也不打算迴避,意思就是我沒干預發牌只是我沒興趣干預,不是我不敢,你也不用來討好我.看來在這個政治博弈遊戲下,王維基真的很渺小.他這一次真是損失慘重,尤其是intangible asset 方面.雖然好像得到很多香港人的支持,但是同情心在香港是不保值的,depreciate 得很快.今天又錄得虧損,capital cost 越來越大了.

http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/entertainment/first/20130531/18277924

Nov 8

不好了,看到三中全會的消息,腦裏居然浮現這句話:「希望三中全會能勝利召開。」唉,中國這麼多問題,大家都覺得沒希望。所以只能期望有另一個歷史性的三中。再來!再來!

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

What a day!

Kitchen faucet has been leaking for a while. Had tried to take it off using basin wrench, but to no avail. Disposer was not working neither, keep humming... It is stuck I knew, but I was not able to turn the flywheel at all. It's really stuck!

So, took a day off, and decided to take off the disposer for better access to the faucet bottom.

After sending daughter to school, dropped by HomeDepot to buy again a basin wrench and new faucet at 8:50am.


Took off the disposer and now I had better access. This is the nut giving me all the troubles.



I decided basin wrench will not work. Adjustable wrench won't work. So I went to HomeDepot again to buy 18,19,20mm wrenches after some very difficult measurements. Damn too big!

Measured again, went to Home Depot to buy 13,14,15mm wrenches. Damn too small.

Went to home depot again, 16mm eventually fit!

And without much effort (why it was so difficult when I used adjustable wrench?), the nut is off and was able to pull off the old faucet.




 It is 3pm already!

Installed this $139 (before tax) new faucet. Easy and straight forward





Now the disposer: Tried to disassemble. Shit, forgot the orientation of the circuit connector. If not doing well, probably will short.






  Too frustrated to try to make the flywheel turn again... So decided to buy a new one. Fifth visit to HomeDepot! Then I was told I need to buy extra power cord for the new disposer. I decided not to have disposer but rebuild the pipes. So bought plummer's putty, glue, and some pipes... But after loading everything in the car park, I realized I forgot to have a part for dishwasher to connect to. Too frustrated again, damn, let me return everything and buy a new disposer and power cord.

Arrived home and tried to assemble the new disposer and realized how a normal flywheel rotates. So I tried again to rotate the flywheel in the old one and it rotated after exerting tremendous force. Great!!! Now I can return the new disposer and save another >$100!

Installed the old one and now everything looks the same but faucet not leaking anymore and disposer is working! 5:30pm and it's time to pick up daughter from after school.




 Rewarded myself with Tam's Cafe's 大哥大豬扒 and ate like a dog!

Tonight will sleep like a log.

Thanks to HomeDepot, the people there taught me many things but also sometimes misguided me. I kept buying the wrong wrench was also because one of the assistants insisted the nut must be standard 1/2 inches per side. So used my trigonometric knowledge to calculate what wrench size should be. And garbage in garbage out. But anyway, I bought 18 items today and I returned 16 of them, keeping only the new faucet and the 16mm wrench which worked.

Costs:

New Faucet including tax ~ $150
16mm wrench including tax ~ $3.3
4 extra visits to HomeDepot to-and-fro ~ 20miles ~ 1 gallon of gas ~ $4

Get everything fixed: Wife's response: What a waste of time! Why didn't you hire a plummer?



Attack

不只出動女人,出動老太太,還出動了肚子裡的BB,何其悲壯啊!只是受到帝國侵略這幾個字可以解釋得了嗎?

Oct 30

可能有人會笑我後知後覺,但是我還是要說對於香港芭蕾舞團刪戲事件感到非常失望。之前由於仇富和忌妒成功人士的不平衡心態,我對HKTV不表示任何同情(現在我也不同情),但是我很同意一個朋友講的,"CY自我矮化,家奴化"。現在的港芭事件,進一步證明香港人(主要是資源控制者)很願意"自我矮化家奴化"。

我還是相信中共高層不會主動要求香港基於政治原因去掉HKTV或者要香港的文化創作自我審查。是這些香港人不去把關。如果有一點點的政治知覺,就算HKTV從經濟角度來講不及格,也應該故意讓他通過;如果紅劇真的為了藝術效果要刪減,也不應該刪減。就像如果丈夫懷疑你有外遇,你本來應該好好招待一個異性恩人,你也應該作罷。在這個關頭,不是講經濟,講藝術,講義氣的時候。是講民心和信任的時候,if you care!

另一個原因,可能是中共要看香港能承受什麼的底線,所以繼續由那些蝦兵蟹將亂港,偏偏香港的領導卻很樂意聽這些人的話。但中共究竟還要不要以香港為示範來統一台灣呢?如果中共已經放棄了一國兩制,那香港實在是沒什麼用。但對台灣也不是什麼好消息。

只是一些想法。

Birthday

Attended two birthday parties today. One for turning 5. One for turning 77. It is so simple to have happy life, meaning when you are 5, your parents celebrate birthday with you and when you are 77, your children also celebrate birthday with you, then one should be satisfied. Don't ask for too much! May God bless you!

Locality

Nowadays people are indulged in local theories. But local theories are inappropriate! Sometimes they are not just approximation but completely wrong! If you model BTBT using local carrier generations, you get the wrong results. In EPM, you need nonlocal pseudopotential.

So I hate the word "local". And some of them even define themselves as "old local". And obviously I am "new non-local". But anyway, there is no way you can stop the non-local effect. Somehow and to some extend, the wavefunction outside your territory will penetrate into your local territory non-locally. That's the fact. Why you want to distinguish new from old? non-local from local? After all, you were non-local non-stationary state somehow captured and localized sometime ago.

I know non-localized states are too aggressive. But non-localized states are the gem of the dynamics. We are not fermions. We are bosons. It's fine to allow others to occupy the same states. Why keep increasing the exchange energy? Let them interact freely!

I mean I don't mind declaring myself a new non-local (in time, in space and in culture) HKers.


YC, maybe empirical tells use that fitting using experimental data is far more efficient and accurate than calculating from first principle? Even engineering avoids theoretical calculations, but nowadays, people quote theories in books and Bible to prove why a social movement is justified.

you are right. The "local HKers" will love to hear what you said. Unfortunately, Chinese has been perceived as locusts everywhere. But I don't think they are. But how can I explain to you? I felt I was self-contradicting when I told you Chinese culture is about harmony with the nature. Shit! Why don't you borrow this book from the library (My Country My People)? http://www.amazon.com/.../dp/1849026645 At least it will tell you what Chinese is about before 1912. After that, who can write another "My Country My People" to explain Chinese to the world? I don't know. Frustrated. Even HKers and Taiwanese don't understand, How can a ABC understand? Buy me a meal if you find this book useful (better than comparing NOR vs NAND)

I don't think so. Firstly, these places are not the true hope for me. Secondly, I still have faith in mainland China. I trust the people will be able to self-correct, needless to say, I still believe most people in China still have this virtue!

if that's your impression, I will not disagree with you as impression is impression. Chances are mine is wronger than yours.

you are irrelevant this time. Staying in California has nothing to do with "hope". I am here just because I have no ability to go back. You know very well if I have ever had desire to stay here.


yes of course I have been to Beijing several times but may not be as recent as you. As I humbly pointed out earlier, my impression can be wronger than you. That I will not argue. However, regretfully, I do not think you entered China with a humble mind or without prejudice. In that case, you won't see what it is even if the air is not polluted. I have a Caucasian group-mate who visits Shanghai every other years by using all his accumulated 2-month-long vacation. What's he doing there? He said he's learning Chinese. But there must be something more than that. If he's not a spy and if he's not looking for Chinese girlfriend there, he must have tried to understand this place. I am sure he's not just there for food! For me, if there is a place that's represents the worst of Chinese characteristics and the people deserved the most condemnation, I will say Shanghai. But he keeps going there. You ask me to explain to you like to my daughter. I cannot. I am not a savvy narrator. My English sucks. I won't be able to explain to my daughter if she's not interested in Chinese or she just knows some pinyin and saying "ni hao ma" or if making fun of Chinese is the only way she can demonstrate her awareness of Chinese culture. When you met the girl eating with her mouth open and her face so close to the plate, you made the right decision not to take her as your wife. But it is not enough if you just stop there without understand why or trying to ask why as an ABC who claims want to know more about Chinese. If you visit Beijing 100 years ago, yes, the sky is bluer, but you will have the same conclusion. There you still see the sick men of East Asia. Even worse, you see Chinese eating Chinese (same as today of course). There are people from China and HK keen to devilize China to make you happy. Or more precisely, to avoid confronting themselves with the real issue when living in the States. They criticize China not as a reflection but as a way to have a clear cut from China. If you choose to resonant with them, you always have the greatest satisfaction. But I ask you to look at Chinese as individuals with blood and life. Think about what brought them here and there. So read the book "my country and my people" to at least have an idea what Chinese is about before 1912.

 And do not use one's history to judge another's history. Also, Chinese are definitely brain washed by communism, but maybe their counterparts have been brain washed by capitalism. There are universal values, I agree. But I feel the universal values we are upholding now might not be complete. QM language: not a complete orthonormal set, so not try to measure everything with this basis. I still believe Chinese culture can somehow contribute to the completeness.

But I know saying these are not very meaningful. Just to express my opinions. One year later, we probably will understand this better. Have a nice weekend!

You are right again. But let me tell you the background of this post. Nowadays, HKers do not like the influx of mainlanders. So some people start declaring them as "old HKers". And "local" is the word among the hottest hits. That's why I write this sport to "express my feeling". Because of this, implicitly I am the promoter of local/non-local co-existence. And you should know in QM, non-local is a superset of local. Without local, there will be no non-local and vice versa. After all, non-local is V=V(r,r') and local is V=V(r-r'). Pure local is just a simplification of non-local. And non-local loses its identity if local is not being recognized.

Of course one has to be careful, this is not simply a local/non-local antagonism. It is a very unbalanced one, 1billion vs 10 million, 5000 years vs 200 years, PLA vs no army

1. Thanks for bringing this up! Are you saying I distorted the history? Maybe, but not intentionally, because how can one mention everything? This can only show that dialogue is very important, even under hostile atmosphere. 2. But it seems that you are saying I distort less than you? Sorry for my poor English. If so thanks!  3. I am surprised you endorse the existence of orthodox history now? You were one of the guys influenced me to not believe in any history. Obviously, if history is what are written, then it cannot be "true" just because it can never fully describe what has happened. For example, what I have said must have misled dtlee. But what you have just supplemented might not make the picture more complete. On the other hand, it might distort it more. If some of HKers are not interested in distinguishing themselves from the new arrivals, would they be so keen in using this term? Although it is named by People's Daily, but it has rooted in HK for awhile already. Remember when China condemned HK being the base for anti-communism? I don't remember many HKers were so honor to bare this name. 4. But no offense to you, Fung. What I just said are mostly jokes and more to reassure the importance and usefulness (at least to me) when reading your comments. Although our discussions always lead to nowhere, they are changing me.

 thanks for sharing the link. If you discuss this with some Chinese, you will hear other opinions. But there is not point for me to discuss this just because 1) imperialism is imperialism. No matter how some Chinese feel about the tricks some SouthEast countries played to Chinese or how much they have "owed" China, there is no deny to the fact that this is imperialism, as for me "imperialism" is BIG vs small 2) If all but yourself say that you are wrong, you better slow down and consider other's opinions even by all means you think you are the most righteous country. 3) As I mentioned in the reply above and also as quoted in the article "several U.S. government officials assured me that there weren’t truly any “good guys” in these territorial disputes", we better not try to find out the "truth". What important is to cooperate and have mutual understanding. Forget about the stupid history. That's why I started learning Japanese more seriously now.

Yes very slim. The difference is the intention. Unfortunately you usually perceive it wrongly. Let it be then.

Oct 22

*當人民為了電視節目而去靜坐示威,為了這麼無聊的事大動肝火,對執政者來說是多麼可怕的啊!以前的人在一個叫什麼波士頓的鬼地方把茶葉倒進海裡面,就促進了一個地區的獨立;現在罷看電視,可能是一個政權倒台的導火線。不可不察也。

*但或許現在還不在臨界點,因為只不過是一個週末的示威。那些每晚接力的大部分都是失業的員工和家屬吧?一個世俗的人每天該多忙啊!要睡覺,要上班,要上facebook,要看書看電視,要送孩子上學,要接孩子下學,要吃要拉,要應付戚親起朋友,要做愛,要應付老公老婆,要陪孩子玩,有些甚至有另外一頭家,你要他們示威,如果不是真的怒不可言,他們也不會這麼積極。但是一年在周末示威兩次,也不是什麼大不了,不需要真的忍無可忍才要出來。等到他們連周日也示威,而且連綿不斷,那統治者就真的怕了,到了這個地步,也就離政權倒台或者武力鎮壓不遠。到時候,就太遲了。對大家都太遲了。占領運動所追求的也是周日周末連綿不斷的示威。64也是如此連綿不斷。

*我很憂慮,究竟香港最後會怎樣,香港又會對中國產生什麼的骨牌效應?我們需不需要在拋出任何的destructive idea同時也拋出constructive idea呢?這樣講吧,如果你們相信一些企圖維持香港和中國穩定的人不為本身的既得利益,那我覺得脅持和騎劫他們的思想和靈魂的就是"中國大得不能倒"的現實。他們真的很怕,一個混亂的中國會給中國人帶來多大災難。你們必須說服他們,畢竟他們和你們一樣熱愛這片土地,只是比你們多了思想的包袱才顯得老態龍鍾;但是歷史在崩塌的混沌的時刻,誰能保證什麼?西歐美國支持的北非中東政變(姑且謂之民主政變)都落得如此的下場,雖能引導中國呢?還是要中國人自己引導自己才有機會。 

Oct. 22

女人自細就鍾意呃人:

案例一:

爸爸:做人要醒目,唔好被人呃,好似你將來大個要搵男朋友,要揀嗰好嘅,ok?
囡囡:爸爸,咁你幫我揀麻得囉!
爸爸諗:信你至奇啦,到時你就唔係咁諗!我未比女人呃過!

案例二:
囡囡:爸爸,我以後要讀細嘅college唔要讀大嘅?
爸爸:點解?
囡囡:你話讀大嘅college要去好遠嘅地方,冇得同你住。我想同你住。
爸爸諗:信你至奇啦,到時你就唔係咁諗!我未比女人呃過!